DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fart Studioswin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSoSteamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fart Studios
Pudgeoften banned
Jenkins · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Sonic · 5 games
Spectreoften banned
Skyward · 4 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Jenkins · 4 games
Zeusoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Dark Willow
Newsham · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Jenkins · 3 games
SoSteam
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
377 picks · 350 bans
Centaur Warrunner
372 picks · 598 bans
Techies
363 picks · 287 bans
Mars
361 picks · 559 bans
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 338 bans
Batrider
343 picks · 706 bans
Hoodwink
327 picks · 195 bans
Tiny
325 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% SoSteam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% SoSteam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:10
Fart Studios 39%SoSteam 61%
The model gave 61% on SoSteam — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 23:14.
Game 2prediction missed48:25
Fart Studios 39%SoSteam 61%
The model gave 61% on SoSteam — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 30:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteSoSteam · 61%
Series resultFart Studios 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2