Apex Genesis vs Fart Studios — prediction DS-ЗК 23 · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Apex Genesiswin 2:0

series probability

69%31%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Fart Studiosloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

No games played over 6 months.

Fart Studios

Pudgeoften banned

Sonic · 5 games

40%

Storm Spiritoften banned

iAnnihilate · 5 games

40%

Spectreoften banned

Skyward · 4 games

50%

Spirit Breakeroften banned

Jenkins · 4 games

50%

Tinyoften banned

Sonic · 4 games

25%

Zeusoften banned

iAnnihilate · 4 games

25%

Dark Willow

Newsham · 3 games

Earth Spirit

iAnnihilate · 3 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

377 picks · 350 bans

53%

Centaur Warrunner

371 picks · 596 bans

57%

Techies

362 picks · 286 bans

51%

Mars

361 picks · 557 bans

55%

Vengeful Spirit

347 picks · 337 bans

51%

Batrider

342 picks · 704 bans

57%

Hoodwink

326 picks · 195 bans

50%

Tiny

322 picks · 340 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%

Hero pool strength54% Apex Genesis

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total69% Apex Genesis

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct20:3

Apex Genesis 69%Fart Studios 31%

The model gave 69% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 17:58.

Game 2prediction correct39:12

Apex Genesis 59%Fart Studios 41%

The model gave 59% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 24:34.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo