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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Night Pulsewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Techies
Techiessignature
OneJey · 10 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 10 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 9 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 9 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
43%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 7 games
43%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 3 games
33%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
67%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 350 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
370 picks · 595 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 554 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
360 picks · 286 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 337 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
339 picks · 705 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
325 picks · 195 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
322 picks · 337 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:50
HULIGANI 52%Night Pulse 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 43:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
Meepore1bl
47% · 40 games55% · 83 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Weaver
WeaverRAMZES666
46% · 36 games50% · 186 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBb3px
48% · 250 games43% · 224 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Chen
ChenPanto
58% · 97 games47% · 114 games
Crystal MaidenJANTER
Crystal Maiden
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
57% · 184 games
Game 2prediction correct29:41
HULIGANI 48%Night Pulse 52%
The model gave 52% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 47:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
50% · 124 games54% · 267 games
Faceless VoidKami
Faceless Void
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinre1bl
52% · 143 games48% · 171 game
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Mars
MarsBb3px
52% · 160 games48% · 242 games
PuckWorick
Puck
Techies
TechiesOneJey
47% · 231 game51% · 228 games
Crystal MaidenJANTER
Crystal Maiden
Batrider
BatriderPanto
49% · 250 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 52%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2