DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 20 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
Invokeroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 14 games
HULIGANI
Hoodwink
OneJey · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 8 games
Techiessignature
OneJey · 8 games
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 7 games
Luna
RAMZES666 · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
377 picks · 351 bans
Centaur Warrunner
369 picks · 595 bans
Mars
360 picks · 551 bans
Techies
356 picks · 286 bans
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 337 bans
Batrider
336 picks · 698 bans
Hoodwink
324 picks · 194 bans
Tiny
317 picks · 334 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:14
1w Team 51%HULIGANI 49%
The model gave 51% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
MedusaRAMZES666
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Windrangerre1bl
TinyCloud
KunkkaBb3px
Leshracswedenstrong
TechiesOneJey
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
PugnaPanto
Game 2prediction missed11:17
1w Team 54%HULIGANI 46%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 43:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenMunkushi~
MedusaRAMZES666
TimbersawCloud
Windrangerre1bl
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
BrewmasterBb3px
Rubickswedenstrong
Crystal MaidenPanto
TechiesRESPECT
TinyOneJey
Game 3prediction correct28:16
1w Team 50%HULIGANI 50%
The model gave 50% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 34:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
MedusaRAMZES666
PangolierCloud
Leshracre1bl
LinaChira JUNIOR
BrewmasterBb3px
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
TechiesPanto
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
Shadow ShamanOneJey
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 52%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3