DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Darlengwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darleng
Leshracoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jing · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Kuku · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Raven · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Kuku · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Kuku · 2 games
Neon Esports
Marsoften banned
JG · 14 games
Hoodwink
Bombi · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 7 games
Techiessignature
Bombi · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
JG · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
378 picks · 352 bans
Centaur Warrunner
367 picks · 594 bans
Mars
356 picks · 551 bans
Techies
355 picks · 282 bans
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 337 bans
Batrider
336 picks · 695 bans
Hoodwink
322 picks · 194 bans
Tiny
315 picks · 334 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Darleng
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:30
Darleng 52%Neon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Darleng — the game was taken by Darleng in 1:07:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenAbat
PangolierKen
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
HoodwinkBombi
LinaYowe
TidehunterJG
TinyJing
Game 2prediction correct30:20
Darleng 51%Neon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Darleng — the game was taken by Darleng in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidAbat
LeshracKen
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
MarsJG
PangolierYowe
HoodwinkBombi
Keeper of the LightJing
Model check result
Model favoriteDarleng · 51%
Series resultDarleng 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2