?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 15 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 12 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
CHYuan · 12 games
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ponyo · 11 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 9 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jhocam · 9 games
67%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 9 games
78%

Execration

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Bob · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Shanks · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techies
cml · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Shanks · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 354 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
365 picks · 592 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
355 picks · 547 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
352 picks · 279 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 336 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
331 picks · 692 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 194 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 332 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total69% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
Talon Esports 62%Execration 38%
The model gave 62% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAkashi
47% · 225 games41% · 87 games
Bloodseeker423
Bloodseeker
Leshrac
LeshracCHYuan
50% · 65 games51% · 211 games
Storm SpiritBob
Storm Spirit
Slardar
SlardarWs
50% · 42 games51% · 114 games
Centaur WarrunnerTino-
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderJhocam
55% · 360 games51% · 297 games
TechiesShanks
Techies
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPonyo
53% · 43 games49% · 26 games
Banecml
Bane
Game 2prediction correct37:17
Talon Esports 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomWs
48% · 193 games48% · 93 games
Razor423
Razor
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAkashi
54% · 137 games52% · 106 games
LeshracBob
Leshrac
Zeus
ZeusCHYuan
43% · 46 games48% · 232 games
MagnusTino-
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderJhocam
51% · 231 game50% · 208 games
Shadow DemonShanks
Shadow Demon
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPonyo
57% · 60 games49% · 28 games
Marcicml
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 69%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2