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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Skem · 8 games
75%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Natsumi · 7 games
71%
Lion
Lion
Skem · 7 games
29%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Natsumi · 7 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 7 games
14%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Jing · 7 games
57%

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 13 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 8 games
38%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 7 games
43%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 7 games
86%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JG · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 354 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
365 picks · 589 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
352 picks · 546 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
352 picks · 279 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 336 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
331 picks · 688 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 193 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 330 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Geek Fam
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total65% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:6
Geek Fam 59%Neon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMac
56% · 93 games50% · 74 games
MarsKen
Mars
Lifestealer
LifestealerNatsumi
49% · 59 games49% · 39 games
EnigmaJG
Enigma
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSkem
53% · 145 games43% · 184 games
RubickBombi
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct33:11
Geek Fam 58%Neon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNatsumi
47% · 39 games47% · 144 games
DoomJG
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMac
53% · 217 games47% · 146 games
Ember SpiritKen
Ember Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSkem
55% · 151 game49% · 117 games
Shadow DemonBombi
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 65%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2