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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 35 games
69%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
70%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 31 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 29 games
66%
Batrider
Batridersignature
33 · 27 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 27 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 27 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 27 games
48%

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 31 game
65%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 29 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Xxs · 28 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 26 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
NothingToSay · 25 games
48%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
540 picks · 329 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
474 picks · 573 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
433 picks · 229 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
424 picks · 356 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 485 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
337 picks · 230 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
320 picks · 847 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
314 picks · 820 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:23
Tundra Esports 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:03:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
53% · 184 games48% · 203 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Kez
KezPure~
50% · 139 games48% · 407 games
BeastmasterXxs
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
46% · 400 games51% · 507 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
53% · 231 game57% · 138 games
Keeper of the Lightfy
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
48% · 376 games45% · 75 games
LichxNova
Lich
Game 2prediction missed16:39
Tundra Esports 62%Xtreme Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 56:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
Necrophos33
48% · 19 games61% · 167 games
Nature's ProphetAme
Nature's Prophet
Muerta
MuertaPure~
44% · 208 games51% · 219 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Tiny
Tinybzm
50% · 398 games49% · 336 games
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
51% · 415 games48% · 348 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerWhitemon
53% · 148 games43% · 118 games
Lionfy
Lion
Game 3prediction correct47:27
Tundra Esports 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:10:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckbzm
52% · 413 games39% · 178 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Necrophos
Necrophos33
56% · 30 games47% · 354 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Doom
DoomPure~
57% · 223 games48% · 214 games
AxeXxs
Axe
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
53% · 448 games49% · 288 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Lich
LichWhitemon
46% · 51 game51% · 131 game
Lionfy
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3