1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO5
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:3series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Entitywin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 16 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
Tinysignature
sayuw · 15 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 13 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 12 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
378 picks · 352 bans
Centaur Warrunner
363 picks · 586 bans
Techies
351 picks · 274 bans
Mars
350 picks · 542 bans
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 336 bans
Batrider
329 picks · 679 bans
Hoodwink
320 picks · 192 bans
Tiny
310 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:21
Virtus.pro 54%Entity 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:45.
Game 2prediction missed18:28
Virtus.pro 54%Entity 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Entity in 48:22.
Game 3prediction missed23:45
Virtus.pro 54%Entity 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Entity in 41:09.
Game 4prediction missed18:41
Virtus.pro 54%Entity 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Entity in 40:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 54%
Series resultEntity 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4