DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTBTeam Bocilloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Darlengwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bocil
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Sven
inYourdreaM · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
db- · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
Xepher · 1 game
Darleng
Leshracoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jing · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Kuku · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Kuku · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Kuku · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Jing · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
379 picks · 353 bans
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 584 bans
Mars
349 picks · 544 bans
Techies
349 picks · 273 bans
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 336 bans
Batrider
330 picks · 674 bans
Hoodwink
319 picks · 191 bans
Tiny
309 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%
Hero pool strength57% Team Bocil
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Darleng
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:33
Team Bocil 38%Darleng 62%
The model gave 62% on Darleng — the game was taken by Darleng in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SveninYourdreaM
Dragon KnightYowe
Tidehunterdb-
OmniknightRaven
SniperMamangDaya
TinyJing
RubickXepher
Crystal MaidenVarizh
Game 2prediction missed35:13
Team Bocil 28%Darleng 72%
The model gave 72% on Darleng — the game was taken by Team Bocil in 36:01.
Game 3prediction correct22:30
Team Bocil 40%Darleng 60%
The model gave 60% on Darleng — the game was taken by Darleng in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SveninYourdreaM
Ember SpiritYowe
PangolierMamangDaya
MarsRaven
Omniknightdb-
SnapfireJing
BatriderXepher
PhoenixVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteDarleng · 72%
Series resultDarleng 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3