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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Darkhorsewin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eagleloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Darkhorse

No games played over 6 months.

Eagle

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Victoria · 10 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hara · 6 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Tz. · 5 games
40%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Manic · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
Hara · 4 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Manic · 3 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 582 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 541 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
347 picks · 273 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 336 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 674 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
319 picks · 191 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
309 picks · 319 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Darkhorse
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Eagle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:29
Darkhorse 47%Eagle 53%
The model gave 53% on Eagle — the game was taken by Eagle in 39:32.
Game 2prediction correct14:19
Darkhorse 47%Eagle 53%
The model gave 53% on Eagle — the game was taken by Eagle in 33:21.
Game 3prediction correct43:34
Darkhorse 47%Eagle 53%
The model gave 53% on Eagle — the game was taken by Eagle in 48:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteEagle · 53%
Series resultDarkhorse 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3