DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Hryvniawin 1:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Monteloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
Monte
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
Linasignature
Moonlight · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 6 games
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 6 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
Centaur Warrunner
362 picks · 579 bans
Mars
349 picks · 535 bans
Techies
347 picks · 273 bans
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 335 bans
Batrider
328 picks · 673 bans
Hoodwink
319 picks · 191 bans
Tiny
309 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Monte
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Hryvnia 46%Monte 54%
The model gave 54% on Monte — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonte · 54%
Series resultTeam Hryvnia 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1