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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Montewin 1:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Level UPloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
29%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linasignature
Moonlight · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 6 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 5 games
60%

Level UP

Tiny
Tinysignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 8 games
38%
Luna
Lunasignature
Focus · 8 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
dEsire · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Stojkov · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 7 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 579 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 534 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
347 picks · 273 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 335 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
328 picks · 673 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
319 picks · 191 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
309 picks · 317 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 35%
Hero pool strength50% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Monte 37%Level UP 63%
The model gave 63% on Level UP — the game was taken by Monte.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 63%
Series resultMonte 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1