DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TBTeam Bocilwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
DJ · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
JaCkky · 5 games
Rubick
DJ · 5 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
DJ · 5 games
Team Bocil
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 577 bans
Mars
349 picks · 534 bans
Techies
346 picks · 273 bans
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 335 bans
Batrider
329 picks · 670 bans
Hoodwink
318 picks · 191 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:32
Bleed Esports 65%Team Bocil 35%
The model gave 65% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Team Bocil in 47:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaJaCkky
Timbersawdb-
Keeper of the LightMikoto
SveninYourdreaM
Dragon Knightzeal
Primal BeastMamangDaya
ChenPoloson
TinyXepher
HoodwinkDJ
GyrocopterVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 76%
Series resultTeam Bocil 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1