1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Liquid
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
Lunasignature
miCKe · 18 games
Rubick
Boxi · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 14 games
Brewmastersignature
33 · 13 games
Muerta
Boxi · 12 games
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 11 games
Lion
Boxi · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 577 bans
Mars
349 picks · 534 bans
Techies
346 picks · 273 bans
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 335 bans
Batrider
329 picks · 668 bans
Hoodwink
318 picks · 191 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total74% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:29
Entity 26%Team Liquid 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:51.
Game 2prediction correct38:16
Entity 26%Team Liquid 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 74%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2