DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Darlengwin 1:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darleng
Leshracoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jing · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Kuku · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Kuku · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Kuku · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Jing · 2 games
Yangon Galacticos
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Young PH · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Void Spirit
Young PH · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
381 picks · 350 bans
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 577 bans
Mars
350 picks · 533 bans
Techies
346 picks · 272 bans
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 336 bans
Batrider
327 picks · 667 bans
Hoodwink
318 picks · 190 bans
Tiny
307 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Darleng
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Darleng
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:15
Darleng 59%Yangon Galacticos 41%
The model gave 59% on Darleng — the game was taken by Darleng in 42:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteDarleng · 59%
Series resultDarleng 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1