Infamous vs Lava — prediction DS-ОК 23 · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Infamousloss 0:2

series probability

32%68%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Lavawin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

No games played over 6 months.

Lava

Alchemistoften banned

Lumière · 3 games

33%

Grimstrokeoften banned

Genek · 3 games

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

Frank · 2 games

Zeusoften banned

Genek · 2 games

50%

Batrideroften banned

Accel · 1 game

Beastmasteroften banned

Frank · 1 game

100%

Bounty Hunter

Leostyle · 1 game

Crystal Maiden

Gardick · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

383 picks · 351 bans

52%

Centaur Warrunner

362 picks · 575 bans

57%

Mars

350 picks · 530 bans

55%

Techies

346 picks · 269 bans

53%

Vengeful Spirit

345 picks · 336 bans

50%

Batrider

327 picks · 665 bans

57%

Hoodwink

316 picks · 190 bans

50%

Tiny

307 picks · 312 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 35%

Hero pool strength56% Infamous

Head-to-head0 – 2

Model total68% Lava

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct10:26

Infamous 41%Lava 59%

The model gave 59% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 30:13.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo