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1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
60%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 17 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
iNSaNiA · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 14 games
57%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 12 games
58%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 11 games
73%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%

HULIGANI

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
RAMZES666 · 7 games
43%
Lion
Lion
Immersion · 6 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
RAMZES666 · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Immersion · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 355 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 571 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 524 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 336 bans
50%
Techies
Techies
341 picks · 269 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
325 picks · 654 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
314 picks · 190 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
301 picks · 308 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:39
Team Liquid 77%HULIGANI 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 39:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTimado
60% · 95 games51% · 182 games
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
Terrorblade
Razor
RazorNisha
48% · 95 games51% · 143 games
Windrangerre1bl
Windranger
Slardar
Slardar33
48% · 51 game43% · 119 games
KunkkaBb3px
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickBoxi
46% · 459 games53% · 320 games
TechiesOneJey
Techies
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
44% · 236 games54% · 172 games
Crystal MaidenPanto
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct24:15
Team Liquid 75%HULIGANI 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
46% · 158 games53% · 204 games
Puckre1bl
Puck
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
42% · 105 games53% · 132 games
SvenRAMZES666
Sven
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
48% · 129 games50% · 168 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Enigma
EnigmaiNSaNiA
54% · 89 games54% · 166 games
Crystal MaidenPanto
Crystal Maiden
Rubick
RubickBoxi
42% · 301 game59% · 112 games
GyrocopterOneJey
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction correct25:10
Team Liquid 78%HULIGANI 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 19:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTimado
51% · 65 games42% · 136 games
Windrangerre1bl
Windranger
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
49% · 92 games54% · 147 games
SlarkRAMZES666
Slark
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNisha
51% · 190 games47% · 148 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Rubick
RubickBoxi
46% · 359 games58% · 184 games
Crystal MaidenPanto
Crystal Maiden
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
56% · 68 games47% · 159 games
Skywrath MageOneJey
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 91%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3