1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO1
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 1:0series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Liquidloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 15 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 14 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
Tinysignature
sayuw · 14 games
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 13 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 12 games
Team Liquid
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
Lunasignature
miCKe · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 14 games
Rubick
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Muerta
Boxi · 12 games
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 11 games
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 355 bans
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 571 bans
Mars
348 picks · 524 bans
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 336 bans
Techies
341 picks · 268 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 653 bans
Hoodwink
314 picks · 190 bans
Tiny
301 picks · 307 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total77% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:30
Virtus.pro 34%Team Liquid 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:08:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaSquad1x
LeshracNisha
GyrocopterKiritych
Doom33
KunkkaNoticed
WeaverTimado
Pugnasayuw
RubickBoxi
Crystal MaidenFng
UndyingiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 77%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1