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1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO1
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 1:0
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PSG Questloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
RAMZES666 · 7 games
43%
Lion
Lion
Immersion · 6 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
RAMZES666 · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Immersion · 5 games
40%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 14 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 13 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
38%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 12 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 355 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 571 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 522 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 336 bans
50%
Techies
Techies
340 picks · 268 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 652 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 190 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
301 picks · 306 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:29
HULIGANI 30%PSG Quest 70%
The model gave 70% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 57:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenRAMZES666
48% · 158 games54% · 153 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
Primal Beast
Primal Beastre1bl
47% · 233 games53% · 83 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Mars
MarsBb3px
49% · 195 games45% · 244 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaPanto
60% · 222 games48% · 283 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOneJey
46% · 116 games52% · 161 game
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 84%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1