Made in Philippines vs MAG.Indonesia — prediction DS-ОК 23 · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Made in Philippinesloss 0:2

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 0:2

MAG.Indonesiawin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Made in Philippines

No games played over 6 months.

MAG.Indonesia

Hoodwink

dalul · 3 games

Pugna

woMy · 2 games

Tinyoften banned

woMy · 2 games

50%

Enigmaoften banned

woMy · 1 game

Rubick

dalul · 1 game

100%

Spirit Breakeroften banned

dalul · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

383 picks · 355 bans

52%

Centaur Warrunner

360 picks · 569 bans

57%

Vengeful Spirit

347 picks · 336 bans

50%

Mars

346 picks · 521 bans

55%

Techies

340 picks · 264 bans

53%

Batrider

324 picks · 648 bans

58%

Hoodwink

313 picks · 189 bans

50%

Tiny

301 picks · 304 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%

Hero pool strength57% Made in Philippines

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% Made in Philippines

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed2:24

Made in Philippines 53%MAG.Indonesia 47%

The model gave 53% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia in 16:33.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo