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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 3:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 3:0
beastcoastloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 8 games
63%
Magnus
Magnussignature
ILICH- · 7 games
86%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Pakazs · 6 games
67%

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 355 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 569 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 339 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 521 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
337 picks · 263 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
325 picks · 642 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 188 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
300 picks · 300 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:14
BOOM Esports 67%beastcoast 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:40.
Game 2prediction correct34:9
BOOM Esports 67%beastcoast 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:07.
Game 3prediction correct54:20
BOOM Esports 67%beastcoast 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 67%
Series resultBOOM Esports 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3