DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionNNALegacywin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDDegen Dinosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NALegacy
No games played over 6 months.
Degen Dinos
Techies
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Skyward · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
FeelinG · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Skyward · 1 game
Clockwerk
FeelinG · 1 game
Dark Willow
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Hoodwink
FeelinG · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Skyward · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 355 bans
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 569 bans
Mars
344 picks · 520 bans
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 338 bans
Techies
336 picks · 263 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 639 bans
Hoodwink
313 picks · 187 bans
Tiny
300 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% NALegacy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% NALegacy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:26
NALegacy 63%Degen Dinos 37%
The model gave 63% on NALegacy — the game was taken by NALegacy in 39:50.
Game 2prediction correct50:23
NALegacy 63%Degen Dinos 37%
The model gave 63% on NALegacy — the game was taken by NALegacy in 35:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteNALegacy · 63%
Series resultNALegacy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2