Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Estar Backs
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Parker · 4 games
Techies
Michael · 4 games
Vengeful Spirit
StingeR · 4 games
Dark Willow
Michael · 3 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 354 bans
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 569 bans
Mars
344 picks · 519 bans
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 338 bans
Techies
335 picks · 263 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 637 bans
Hoodwink
313 picks · 187 bans
Tiny
300 picks · 296 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Estar Backs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:24
beastcoast 41%Estar Backs 59%
The model gave 59% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 36:15.
Game 2prediction correct19:31
beastcoast 41%Estar Backs 59%
The model gave 59% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 37:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 59%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2