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ESSENCE II · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
swedenstrong · 30 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 23 games
35%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 19 games
58%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
67%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
41%

BETBOOM TEAM

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Save- · 32 games
63%
Kez
Kezsignature
Kiritych · 30 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 28 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 26 games
77%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
gpK~ · 25 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 23 games
61%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Kataomi · 23 games
78%
Largo
Largosignature
MieRo · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
515 picks · 364 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
372 picks · 658 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
362 picks · 206 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
330 picks · 351 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
329 picks · 368 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 446 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
311 picks · 232 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
296 picks · 421 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total71% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:36
1w Team 40%BETBOOM TEAM 60%
The model gave 60% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 52:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPure~
48% · 132 games47% · 118 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner33
46% · 306 games49% · 241 game
UnderlordMieRo
Underlord
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbzm
56% · 81 game47% · 340 games
SlardargpK~
Slardar
Mirana
MiranaWhitemon
53% · 60 games50% · 161 game
Shadow ShamanSave-
Shadow Shaman
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
54% · 432 games51% · 151 game
UndyingKataomi
Undying
Game 2prediction missed31:14
1w Team 39%BETBOOM TEAM 61%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPure~
45% · 84 games43% · 79 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Io
Iobzm
59% · 28 games47% · 257 games
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Centaur Warrunner
Largo
Largo33
51% · 146 games52% · 46 games
KunkkagpK~
Kunkka
Tusk
TuskAri
50% · 259 games51% · 60 games
Ancient ApparitionKataomi
Ancient Apparition
Lion
LionWhitemon
53% · 79 games54% · 154 games
BaneSave-
Bane
Game 3prediction missed37:10
1w Team 37%BETBOOM TEAM 63%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerPure~
44% · 364 games72% · 47 games
Lone DruidKiritych
Lone Druid
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
51% · 456 games51% · 384 games
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Centaur Warrunner
Largo
Largo33
54% · 237 games47% · 320 games
SlardargpK~
Slardar
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
47% · 344 games52% · 594 games
HoodwinkKataomi
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
41% · 222 games48% · 278 games
RubickSave-
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 71%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3