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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 34 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Panto · 21 game
48%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 19 games
68%

Aurora Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 54 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 52 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 48 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 41 game
76%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 37 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 35 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
539 picks · 329 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
473 picks · 573 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
432 picks · 229 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
423 picks · 353 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 482 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
339 picks · 230 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
320 picks · 846 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
314 picks · 820 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total56% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:5
Team Spirit 47%Aurora Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYatoro
47% · 141 game53% · 123 games
LifestealerNightfall
Lifestealer
Snapfire
SnapfireCollapse
48% · 131 game53% · 154 games
DoomWs
Doom
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
45% · 84 games49% · 194 games
WindrangerMikoto
Windranger
Rubick
Rubicknot me
49% · 197 games47% · 73 games
TechiesMira
Techies
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorrue
54% · 58 games56% · 67 games
LichKaori
Lich
Game 2prediction correct14:51
Team Spirit 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
63% · 192 games48% · 202 games
DoomNightfall
Doom
Mars
MarsCollapse
43% · 265 games52% · 501 game
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
49% · 421 game46% · 252 games
AxeWs
Axe
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorrue
56% · 123 games49% · 328 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Hoodwink
Hoodwinknot me
53% · 405 games42% · 123 games
LionMira
Lion
Game 3prediction missed47:33
Team Spirit 47%Aurora Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:07:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerLarl
45% · 127 games48% · 191 game
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Alchemist
AlchemistYatoro
54% · 80 games44% · 116 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
51% · 165 games49% · 303 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
55% · 442 games49% · 285 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Ringmaster
Ringmasternot me
57% · 232 games49% · 151 game
ClockwerkMira
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 56%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3