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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 1:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 30 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 20 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 19 games
37%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
60%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 13 games
62%

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 12 games
42%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
58%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 12 games
42%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 12 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 354 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 568 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 519 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 338 bans
50%
Techies
Techies
335 picks · 262 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
325 picks · 637 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 187 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
300 picks · 296 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength56% B8 Esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total58% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Natus Vincere Junior 58%B8 Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1