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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 1:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Monteloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Tiny
Tinysignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
swedenstrong · 8 games
38%
Luna
Lunasignature
Focus · 8 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
dEsire · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Bor@nija · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 7 games
0%

Monte

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
33%
Lina
Linasignature
Moonlight · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 6 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 6 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 563 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 337 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 517 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
331 picks · 261 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 633 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 187 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
299 picks · 295 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 32%
Hero pool strength51% Monte
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:23
Level UP 53%Monte 47%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCoblackk
50% · 254 games56% · 160 games
AlchemistCrystallize
Alchemist
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBor@nija
45% · 226 games50% · 349 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickJeezy
41% · 513 games55% · 325 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Techies
TechiesStoic
51% · 443 games54% · 382 games
BatriderQBFY
Batrider
50% · 220 games
Crystal MaidenEcNart
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 59%
Series resultLevel UP 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1