DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 1:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Dandelionsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 12 games
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 12 games
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
Chensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 563 bans
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 337 bans
Mars
342 picks · 517 bans
Techies
331 picks · 261 bans
Batrider
323 picks · 633 bans
Hoodwink
313 picks · 187 bans
Tiny
299 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Dandelions
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:9
B8 Esports 46%Dandelions 54%
The model gave 54% on Dandelions — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 34:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteDandelions · 54%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1