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1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PSG Questloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
60%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
iNSaNiA · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 11 games
73%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 14 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 13 games
62%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malik · 12 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Malik · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 354 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
355 picks · 564 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 337 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 518 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
330 picks · 261 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 632 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 187 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
299 picks · 294 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total70% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:25
Team Liquid 60%PSG Quest 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
43% · 138 games57% · 66 games
LifestealerTA2000
Lifestealer
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
42% · 95 games50% · 145 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Huskar
HuskarNisha
59% · 23 games47% · 147 games
Primal BeastNo!ob
Primal Beast
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
56% · 75 games57% · 160 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Tiny
TinyBoxi
49% · 214 games44% · 27 games
Elder TitanDukalis
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 70%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1