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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 25 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 24 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 22 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%

PARIVISION

Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 33 games
64%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
9Class · 21 game
71%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Dukalis · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
538 picks · 328 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
476 picks · 575 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
430 picks · 229 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 355 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 480 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
339 picks · 231 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
322 picks · 848 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
316 picks · 822 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total50% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:0
Team Falcons 51%PARIVISION 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 28:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
54% · 119 games53% · 104 games
ViperSatanic
Viper
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
64% · 51 game42% · 150 games
DawnbreakerNoticed
Dawnbreaker
Tiny
TinySkiter
40% · 223 games49% · 44 games
Death ProphetNo[o]ne
Death Prophet
Chen
ChenSneyking
55% · 94 games52% · 95 games
Keeper of the Light9Class
Keeper of the Light
Lion
LionCr1t-
52% · 66 games45% · 160 games
ClockwerkDukalis
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed0:0
Team Falcons 51%PARIVISION 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 7:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidSkiter
54% · 32 games52% · 369 games
TinySatanic
Tiny
Mars
MarsATF
48% · 267 games45% · 126 games
ViperNo[o]ne
Viper
Slardar
SlardarMalr1ne
50% · 226 games51% · 221 game
TimbersawNoticed
Timbersaw
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
53% · 209 games55% · 93 games
Keeper of the Light9Class
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
44% · 90 games45% · 15 games
Witch DoctorDukalis
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction missed22:36
Team Falcons 53%PARIVISION 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 41:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
52% · 97 games49% · 164 games
TimbersawNoticed
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomATF
52% · 175 games42% · 40 games
SniperNo[o]ne
Sniper
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
49% · 150 games51% · 315 games
TinySatanic
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
56% · 389 games44% · 18 games
Witch DoctorDukalis
Witch Doctor
Lich
LichSneyking
56% · 56 games46% · 330 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 50%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3