Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
BOOM Esports
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 7 games
Magnussignature
ILICH- · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Panda · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
384 picks · 353 bans
Centaur Warrunner
351 picks · 560 bans
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 337 bans
Mars
342 picks · 513 bans
Techies
327 picks · 256 bans
Batrider
316 picks · 622 bans
Hoodwink
310 picks · 184 bans
Tiny
297 picks · 286 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:24
beastcoast 34%BOOM Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:05.
Game 2prediction correct29:65
beastcoast 34%BOOM Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:04:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 66%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2