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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AcatSukiloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Estar Backswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AcatSuki

Mirana
Mirana
Kiri · 3 games
67%
Sven
Sven
NeKo · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Prada · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 1 game
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Kiri · 1 game
0%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Adrx · 1 game
100%

Estar Backs

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Parker · 4 games
75%
Techies
Techies
Michael · 4 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
StingeR · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Michael · 3 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 353 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
351 picks · 559 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 337 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 511 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
326 picks · 255 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
316 picks · 621 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
310 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
297 picks · 284 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:52
AcatSuki 25%Estar Backs 75%
The model gave 75% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by AcatSuki in 39:46.
Game 2prediction correct
AcatSuki 25%Estar Backs 75%
The model gave 75% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Game 3prediction correct
AcatSuki 25%Estar Backs 75%
The model gave 75% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 75%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3