Stray Team vs Recrent Team — prediction BSB 13 · Dota 2

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BetBoom Streamers Battle 13 · BO3

result vs prediction

Stray Teamloss 1:2

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Recrent Teamwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Stray Team

Tusk

Vovapain · 3 games

67%

Underlordoften banned

DkFogas · 3 games

33%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Retsu · 2 games

50%

Night Stalker

DkFogas · 2 games

50%

Nyx Assassin

Stray · 2 games

Shadow Shaman

Goodoq · 2 games

50%

Silencer

Vovapain · 2 games

50%

Tiny

Goodoq · 2 games

50%

Recrent Team

Snapfire

Shishak · 4 games

50%

Axe

kolya_kaBAN68 · 3 games

33%

Lich

Ubica · 3 games

33%

Techies

Shishak · 3 games

100%

Brewmasteroften banned

Petushara · 2 games

50%

Doomoften banned

Petushara · 2 games

50%

Drow Ranger

Smiling Knight · 2 games

50%

Gyrocopteroften banned

Ubica · 2 games

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

538 picks · 328 bans

55%

Phoenix

476 picks · 575 bans

51%

Rubick

429 picks · 229 bans

48%

Tiny

421 picks · 355 bans

51%

Pangolier

353 picks · 480 bans

48%

Jakiro

339 picks · 231 bans

49%

Puck

322 picks · 848 bans

51%

Beastmaster

316 picks · 822 bans

46%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%

Hero pool strength52% Recrent Team

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total50% Recrent Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct

Stray Team 50%Recrent Team 50%

The model gave 50% on Recrent Team — the game was taken by Recrent Team.

Game 2prediction correct1:0

Stray Team 51%Recrent Team 49%

The model gave 51% on Stray Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 36:11.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo