Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Midas Clubloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Midas Club
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
FCR · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Wij · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Costabile · 1 game
Mirana
Hyko · 1 game
Omniknight
FCR · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Costabile · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
385 picks · 355 bans
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 557 bans
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 337 bans
Mars
341 picks · 507 bans
Techies
324 picks · 255 bans
Batrider
313 picks · 618 bans
Hoodwink
310 picks · 184 bans
Tiny
295 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Midas Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:7
beastcoast 64%Midas Club 36%
The model gave 64% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Midas Club in 35:57.
Game 2prediction missed26:8
beastcoast 64%Midas Club 36%
The model gave 64% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Midas Club in 28:44.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 64%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2