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RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Monteloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
MOUZloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 6 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 5 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 5 games
80%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 5 games
40%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
bengan · 8 games
63%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 6 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Supream^ · 5 games
80%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 5 games
100%
Bane
Bane
bengan · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Supream^ · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 355 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 557 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 337 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 507 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
324 picks · 255 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 618 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
310 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
295 picks · 280 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed63:20
Monte 45%MOUZ 55%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Monte in 49:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
54% · 304 games43% · 250 games
TerrorbladeUlnit
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
49% · 251 game46% · 311 games
DoomForce
Doom
Slark
SlarkCrystallize
53% · 134 games52% · 220 games
Keeper of the LightSupream^
Keeper of the Light
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeEcNart
48% · 116 games58% · 43 games
Banebengan
Bane
Batrider
BatriderQBFY
53% · 251 game49% · 232 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct24:36
Monte 46%MOUZ 54%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 47:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMoonlight
46% · 56 games49% · 40 games
Phantom AssassinUlnit
Phantom Assassin
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCrystallize
58% · 181 game45% · 221 game
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Dark Seer
Dark SeerInfernal
60% · 114 games47% · 147 games
Nature's ProphetNARMAN
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyQBFY
50% · 212 games53% · 96 games
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenEcNart
53% · 108 games40% · 167 games
Undyingbengan
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2