RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
JustBetterloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
JustBetter
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Hoodwink
Astral · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 3 games
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
SsaSpartan · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 2 games
MOUZ
Gyrocopter
bengan · 6 games
Sven
Ulnit · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Supream^ · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 4 games
Tiny
NARMAN · 4 games
Bane
bengan · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 3 games
Earthshakeroften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
385 picks · 355 bans
Centaur Warrunner
350 picks · 552 bans
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 337 bans
Mars
336 picks · 507 bans
Techies
323 picks · 254 bans
Batrider
312 picks · 612 bans
Hoodwink
308 picks · 184 bans
Tiny
293 picks · 277 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:38
JustBetter 37%MOUZ 63%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinFocus
SvenUlnit
RubickThuG
LeshracSupream^
MagnusSkyLark
EnigmaForce
Nature's ProphetSsaSpartan
GyrocopterNARMAN
BatriderAstral
Shadow Demonbengan
Game 2prediction correct1:18
JustBetter 38%MOUZ 62%
The model gave 62% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 15:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaFocus
LeshracSupream^
RubickThuG
Dark SeerForce
BeastmasterSkyLark
GyrocopterUlnit
OracleSsaSpartan
Centaur WarrunnerNARMAN
PugnaAstral
Banebengan
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 72%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2