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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Night Pulseloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 7 games
57%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
RAMZES666 · 7 games
43%
Lion
Lion
Immersion · 6 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
RAMZES666 · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Immersion · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 4 games
25%

Night Pulse

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Corrupted · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 355 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
350 picks · 548 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 337 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 505 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
321 picks · 253 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
311 picks · 606 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
305 picks · 184 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
292 picks · 455 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:35
HULIGANI 45%Night Pulse 55%
The model gave 55% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 47:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautRAMZES666
50% · 91 game55% · 145 games
Naga SirenKami
Naga Siren
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinre1bl
49% · 141 game55% · 245 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Mars
MarsBb3px
47% · 186 games47% · 220 games
MagnusCorrupted
Magnus
Rubick
RubickOneJey
41% · 448 games52% · 399 games
TechiesJANTER
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanto
52% · 143 games
Game 2prediction missed26:9
HULIGANI 44%Night Pulse 56%
The model gave 56% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRAMZES666
46% · 126 games49% · 125 games
LunaKami
Luna
Puck
Puckre1bl
53% · 199 games57% · 275 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBb3px
47% · 148 games48% · 284 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOneJey
46% · 128 games51% · 139 games
Crystal MaidenJANTER
Crystal Maiden
Undying
UndyingPanto
51% · 222 games
Game 3prediction missed23:10
HULIGANI 44%Night Pulse 56%
The model gave 56% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenRAMZES666
49% · 126 games55% · 135 games
Faceless VoidKami
Faceless Void
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painre1bl
50% · 103 games52% · 214 games
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Kunkka
KunkkaBb3px
47% · 119 games53% · 194 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOneJey
47% · 125 games49% · 235 games
EnchantressJANTER
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesPanto
46% · 305 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 58%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3