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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PlayTimewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 23 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 20 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 20 games
85%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 19 games
37%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 17 games
53%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 12 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 12 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 11 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Wits · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 9 games
67%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Wits · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
534 picks · 328 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
476 picks · 576 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
427 picks · 228 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 355 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 480 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
338 picks · 231 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 847 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
316 picks · 822 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% PlayTime
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:0
Natus Vincere 61%PlayTime 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNiku
49% · 167 games55% · 25 games
NecrophosWits
Necrophos
Muerta
Muertagotthejuice
48% · 256 games57% · 87 games
LargoFrank
Largo
Axe
Axepma
48% · 269 games46% · 315 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Venomancer
VenomancerRiddys
57% · 126 games52% · 399 games
HoodwinkElmisho
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickDaze
49% · 360 games45% · 352 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed0:0
Natus Vincere 63%PlayTime 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by PlayTime in 24:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladegotthejuice
50% · 299 games52% · 210 games
Shadow FiendWits
Shadow Fiend
Underlord
Underlordpma
43% · 220 games50% · 92 games
Dark SeerFrank
Dark Seer
Kez
KezNiku
48% · 142 games58% · 326 games
SlardarDarkMago
Slardar
Rubick
RubickDaze
47% · 255 games51% · 108 games
UndyingScofield
Undying
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRiddys
49% · 330 games52% · 510 games
HoodwinkElmisho
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed0:0
Natus Vincere 65%PlayTime 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by PlayTime in 25:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
Underlordpma
47% · 210 games55% · 214 games
Shadow FiendWits
Shadow Fiend
Kez
KezNiku
54% · 166 games49% · 62 games
EnigmaFrank
Enigma
Windranger
Windrangergotthejuice
48% · 240 games46% · 280 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Venomancer
VenomancerRiddys
55% · 104 games51% · 403 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDaze
51% · 327 games46% · 88 games
TechiesElmisho
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 69%
Series resultPlayTime 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3