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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
42%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
RESPECT · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
RESPECT · 13 games
69%

Nemiga Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
29%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugna
queezy · 7 games
57%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
zenica · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 355 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
350 picks · 548 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 337 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 505 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
321 picks · 253 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
311 picks · 606 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
305 picks · 184 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
292 picks · 455 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:22
1w Team 55%Nemiga Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:03:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
50% · 130 games49% · 291 game
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
46% · 281 game52% · 200 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Doom
DoomCloud
50% · 290 games45% · 251 game
TinyMikSa`
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaRESPECT
52% · 236 games46% · 244 games
Pugnaqueezy
Pugna
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
54% · 281 game55% · 232 games
Crystal Maidenaik
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct23:10
1w Team 54%Nemiga Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 20:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
53% · 73 games54% · 216 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaCloud
49% · 136 games50% · 237 games
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Storm Spirit
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
49% · 109 games46% · 166 games
MarsMikSa`
Mars
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
50% · 383 games49% · 123 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Undying
UndyingRESPECT
50% · 226 games51% · 185 games
Pugnaaik
Pugna
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 54%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2