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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Darlengwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Darleng

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jing · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Kuku · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Kuku · 1 game
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Abat · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Ponyo · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
55%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 11 games
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 9 games
78%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 9 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 353 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
346 picks · 534 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 340 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
327 picks · 501 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
317 picks · 251 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 590 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
300 picks · 178 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
290 picks · 271 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:46
Darleng 42%Talon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:09:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAbat
48% · 242 games43% · 98 games
Anti-MageAkashi
Anti-Mage
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJing
46% · 137 games48% · 138 games
Templar AssassinCHYuan
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomKuku
53% · 209 games50% · 135 games
MarsWs
Mars
Leshrac
LeshracYowe
57% · 57 games52% · 139 games
Shadow DemonJhocam
Shadow Demon
53% · 135 games
Crystal MaidenPonyo
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed31:28
Darleng 42%Talon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Darleng in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkAbat
50% · 138 games43% · 185 games
Dragon KnightCHYuan
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomKuku
49% · 211 games50% · 97 games
BrewmasterWs
Brewmaster
Razor
RazorYowe
45% · 84 games53% · 119 games
SvenAkashi
Sven
Rubick
RubickJing
44% · 314 games61% · 107 games
GyrocopterJhocam
Gyrocopter
57% · 239 games
MiranaPonyo
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed34:11
Darleng 42%Talon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Darleng in 31:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracYowe
47% · 95 games56% · 79 games
RazorWs
Razor
Morphling
MorphlingAbat
49% · 182 games63% · 152 games
PuckCHYuan
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerKuku
49% · 202 games49% · 99 games
Dragon KnightAkashi
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJing
47% · 120 games43% · 168 games
TinyJhocam
Tiny
49% · 101 game
Crystal MaidenPonyo
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 63%
Series resultDarleng 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3