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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Estar Backswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Gardick · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Accel · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 1 game
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Leostyle · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Frank · 1 game
0%
Lion
Lion
Genek · 1 game
0%

Estar Backs

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Parker · 4 games
75%
Techies
Techies
Michael · 4 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
StingeR · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Michael · 3 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 353 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 339 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
343 picks · 533 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
326 picks · 497 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
317 picks · 250 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 588 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
300 picks · 178 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
290 picks · 268 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:27
Lava 22%Estar Backs 78%
The model gave 78% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 53:44.
Game 2prediction correct27:36
Lava 22%Estar Backs 78%
The model gave 78% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 52:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 78%
Series resultEstar Backs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2