AcatSuki vs x5 Gaming — prediction ELЗК · Dota 2

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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

AcatSukiwin 2:1

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 2:1

x5 Gamingloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AcatSuki

No games played over 6 months.

x5 Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

384 picks · 353 bans

52%

Vengeful Spirit

344 picks · 339 bans

51%

Centaur Warrunner

342 picks · 532 bans

57%

Mars

326 picks · 494 bans

55%

Techies

317 picks · 250 bans

52%

Batrider

304 picks · 585 bans

57%

Hoodwink

300 picks · 177 bans

50%

Tiny

288 picks · 267 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%

Hero pool strength50% AcatSuki

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% AcatSuki

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct27:8

AcatSuki 50%x5 Gaming 50%

The model gave 50% on AcatSuki — the game was taken by AcatSuki in 31:00.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo