?
arrow_backBack to match
RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
MOUZloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 29 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 23 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 20 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 19 games
37%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
47%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 14 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 13 games
62%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
bengan · 5 games
60%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 5 games
40%
Bane
Bane
bengan · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 3 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Supream^ · 3 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Supream^ · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 353 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 339 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
342 picks · 530 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
326 picks · 494 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
317 picks · 250 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
303 picks · 584 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
300 picks · 177 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
287 picks · 266 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:20
Natus Vincere Junior 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNiku
55% · 185 games55% · 143 games
Faceless VoidUlnit
Faceless Void
Meepo
Meepopma
50% · 30 games41% · 44 games
LinaSupream^
Lina
Pudge
Pudgegotthejuice
44% · 36 games47% · 179 games
MagnusForce
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderDaze
53% · 257 games40% · 50 games
Gyrocopterbengan
Gyrocopter
Lich
LichRiddys
57% · 59 games50% · 151 game
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct10:30
Natus Vincere Junior 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
56% · 213 games50% · 161 game
MedusaUlnit
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
46% · 361 game51% · 207 games
PuckSupream^
Puck
Kunkka
Kunkkapma
48% · 132 games49% · 286 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireDaze
48% · 194 games49% · 246 games
Nature's ProphetNARMAN
Nature's Prophet
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
52% · 214 games52% · 214 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 52%
Accuracy by game2 of 2