Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lavaloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Lava
Alchemistoften banned
JP · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Accel · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
Leostyle · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Demon · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
JP · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Accel · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
Tusk
Demon · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 352 bans
Vengeful Spirit
342 picks · 336 bans
Centaur Warrunner
339 picks · 530 bans
Mars
324 picks · 490 bans
Techies
315 picks · 250 bans
Batrider
302 picks · 581 bans
Hoodwink
300 picks · 177 bans
Tiny
287 picks · 263 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:22
beastcoast 72%Lava 28%
The model gave 72% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Lava in 39:40.
Game 2prediction missed42:36
beastcoast 72%Lava 28%
The model gave 72% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Lava in 1:19:59.
Game 3prediction missed38:23
beastcoast 72%Lava 28%
The model gave 72% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Lava in 39:23.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 72%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3