?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Night Pulsewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%

Night Pulse

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Corrupted · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 1 game
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
JANTER · 1 game
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Kami · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 352 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
341 picks · 336 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
337 picks · 528 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
323 picks · 489 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
315 picks · 248 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
301 picks · 578 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
299 picks · 177 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
287 picks · 261 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 40%
Hero pool strength62% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:35
ASAKURA 55%Night Pulse 45%
The model gave 55% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 31:55.
Game 2prediction missed32:9
ASAKURA 55%Night Pulse 45%
The model gave 55% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 27:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 55%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2