The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction11p2mwin 2:0
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RHRetirement Homeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1p2m
Axeoften banned
MegoWay · 1 game
Disruptor
antoha · 1 game
Hoodwink
Katari_ · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
hairo · 1 game
Tiny
ZipZzzap · 1 game
Retirement Home
Bane
Ceb · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
qojqva · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Ceb · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Arteezy · 1 game
Earth Spirit
Topson · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Ceb · 1 game
Lion
Pablo · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Arteezy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
629 picks · 414 bans
Rubick
537 picks · 298 bans
Phoenix
485 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 395 bans
Pangolier
430 picks · 620 bans
Puck
351 picks · 999 bans
Tusk
345 picks · 296 bans
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 525 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% 1p2m
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Retirement Home
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:13
1p2m 39%Retirement Home 61%
The model gave 61% on Retirement Home — the game was taken by 1p2m in 39:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophoshairo
SnapfireTopson
InvokerZipZzzap
MuertaArteezy
DoomMegoWay
Underlordqojqva
Dark WillowKatari_
ClockwerkPablo
Treant Protectorantoha
Winter WyvernCeb
Game 2prediction missed26:21
1p2m 39%Retirement Home 61%
The model gave 61% on Retirement Home — the game was taken by 1p2m in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerhairo
TinyArteezy
Dark SeerMegoWay
SnapfireTopson
PangolierZipZzzap
Lycanqojqva
Enchantressantoha
Nature's ProphetCeb
ClockwerkKatari_
TuskPablo
Model check result
Model favoriteRetirement Home · 72%
Series result1p2m 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2