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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4Pirateswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 27 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 25 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 25 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
64%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
75%

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 7 games
29%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 6 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 5 games
20%
Underlord
Underlord
мистер мораль · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
0%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 4 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 621 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
461 picks · 530 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 573 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
378 picks · 189 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
366 picks · 405 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
353 picks · 263 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
337 picks · 919 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 688 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 39%
Hero pool strength59% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:12
1w Team 78%4Pirates 22%
The model gave 78% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
53% · 276 games57% · 124 games
SniperOtaker
Sniper
Lina
Linadualrazee
44% · 98 games52% · 300 games
Timbersawмистер мораль
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsCloud
47% · 143 games51% · 128 games
Earth SpiritNattyNarwhal
Earth Spirit
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
45% · 225 games60% · 87 games
Ogre MagiPERDAN4IK
Ogre Magi
Lich
LichRESPECT
45% · 46 games47% · 149 games
Muertaariel
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed29:30
1w Team 78%4Pirates 22%
The model gave 78% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 43:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMunkushi~
44% · 286 games54% · 119 games
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Bristleback
Lina
Linadualrazee
46% · 138 games51% · 212 games
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
Timbersaw
Magnus
MagnusCloud
51% · 175 games49% · 23 games
SpectreOtaker
Spectre
Muerta
Muertaswedenstrong
45% · 179 games49% · 233 games
Lionariel
Lion
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRESPECT
54% · 79 games55% · 270 games
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed21:45
1w Team 79%4Pirates 21%
The model gave 79% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 53:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
50% · 170 games40% · 30 games
Drow RangerOtaker
Drow Ranger
Lina
Linadualrazee
42% · 127 games50% · 83 games
SniperNattyNarwhal
Sniper
Magnus
MagnusCloud
54% · 163 games52% · 248 games
Doomмистер мораль
Doom
Lion
Lionswedenstrong
54% · 251 game49% · 137 games
Muertaariel
Muerta
Undying
UndyingRESPECT
48% · 48 games53% · 261 game
TinyPERDAN4IK
Tiny
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 93%
Series result4Pirates 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3