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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 14 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 14 games
50%

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 29 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 28 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 21 game
71%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
68%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 19 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 15 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
560 picks · 568 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 417 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 391 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 523 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
332 picks · 198 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
328 picks · 722 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
324 picks · 608 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
306 picks · 442 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 65%
Hero pool strength50% 4Pirates
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total65% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:36
1w Team 58%4Pirates 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
48% · 348 games56% · 245 games
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
55% · 461 game55% · 345 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxeSSS
53% · 123 games43% · 392 games
Pangolierмистер мораль
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
51% · 308 games42% · 80 games
Snapfireariel
Snapfire
Pugna
Pugnakasane
50% · 193 games46% · 371 game
TuskPERDAN4IK
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct35:15
1w Team 55%4Pirates 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
45% · 140 games54% · 157 games
Templar AssassinOtaker
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckSquad1x
51% · 313 games53% · 384 games
Pangolierмистер мораль
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSSS
46% · 184 games58% · 216 games
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
Monkey King
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
47% · 195 games53% · 79 games
UndyingPERDAN4IK
Undying
Warlock
Warlockkasane
42% · 224 games52% · 220 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 65%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2