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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aim Possibleloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 16 games
31%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 14 games
50%

Aim Possible

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
100%
Warlock
Warlock
Aidar · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 730 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
431 picks · 318 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
383 picks · 879 bans
57%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
382 picks · 670 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
381 picks · 1020 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 509 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Aim Possible
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:7
1w Team 69%Aim Possible 31%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMunkushi~
55% · 107 games41% · 122 games
Terrorbladerubikon155
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingSSS
64% · 81 game52% · 159 games
JakiroAidar
Jakiro
Tinker
Tinkerswedenstrong
44% · 29 games
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
44% · 37 games
Ringmaster
RingmasterHduo
57% · 27 games
Game 2prediction correct37:19
1w Team 69%Aim Possible 31%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMunkushi~
52% · 47 games48% · 46 games
Ursarubikon155
Ursa
Abaddon
AbaddonSSS
41% · 26 games56% · 113 games
JakiroAidar
Jakiro
Monkey King
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
50% · 54 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
36% · 16 games
Ringmaster
RingmasterHduo
50% · 16 games
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 84%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2